Pace

Much ado has been made about pace handicapping in the last few years. From the Sartin Methodology and its proponents (Brohmaer, Hambleton, etc.), to Bloodstock Research, to Thoroughbred Sports Network, to Henry Kuck, and Dick Mitchell, pace numbers are sprouting up like wildflowers. In our opinion, only the Sartin people have made significant discoveries. Although velocity based pace numbers have been around awhile, the Sartin crowd did some original work by creating and analyzing several types of pace ratings, studying energy distribution, developing track models (which show what types of running styles and energy patterns typify the winners at different distances at a particular track), and bringing the whole process together with a well defined decision model.

The problem with the Sartin approach is that the user is required to select a "representative" pace line for each horse in the race, before proceeding with the steps of the decision model. This appears to be a shaky foundation, and the Sartin people themselves admit that selecting the right pace lines takes a lot of practice. They go on to say that "when the difficulties involved have sorted themselves out, the correct pace lines will LOOM off the page." We wonder. A more serious flaw is their rationale of using one isolated performance to predict a future outcome. This disregard for the current form cycle (or the form cycle from which the paceline is selected), does not allow for a complete evaluation of the horse's expected performance TODAY. Only by looking at the animal's overall development, can a true model of CONDITION be created.

When each horse is loaded into the starting gate, it has a certain amount of energy available to distribute during the race. This amount of energy will depend on the trainer's ability to have his horse healthy, happy and racing fit. The better conditioned the animal, the more energy will be available. Assuming the animal has not dissipated an excess of energy in the paddock or post parade, its gas tank will be full.

Thoroughbreds are bred to run, and it is not as easy as one might think to ration their energy. To begin with, all horses are individuals, and in the early stages of their racing careers, they are usually required to adapt to a variety of situations (dirt, grass, sprints, routes, off tracks, etc. ). As human runners have distinct preferences (Carl Lewis liked sprints and Jim Ryan preferred routes), so do the majority of racehorses. In fact, certain sprinters may handle seven furlongs better than six, or a router might love a mile and an eighth but just can't get ten furlongs. Conformation, pedigree and other individual nuances all play a role in determining these preferences. Trainers continually experiment with their younger stock in an effort to discover what distance and surface is most suitable for each individual. Rare indeed is the animal who can handle all distances and surfaces with equal aplomb.

We are now ready to commence our discussion of pace. Before we analyze the effects of pace on a horse race, let's first think of the idea in terms of our own daily activity. We've probably all said at one time or another "I've got to pace myself" or "I'm burning the candle at both ends." When we try to do too much work too quickly or work around the clock without resting, our energy becomes depleted. Both our physical and mental apparatus begin to feel the strain, and until replenished, our performance will suffer. Thoroughbreds react to the same physical and anatomical forces, and once we become cognizant of this, we will see them for the living, breathing creatures they are, and not just a bunch of numbers in the Racing Form. Ask a horse to expend too much energy early in a race, and it won't have much left for the finish (it didn't pace itself). Make a horse run at peak capacity a couple of times without the proper rest and recovery period, and you'll likely end up with an unhappy animal, often subject to injury ( burning the candle at both ends). Racehorses aren't as stupid as some humans think. One of the reasons older geldings are relatively consistent performers is they know how fast they can run without hurting themselves. Younger animals, unaware of their capabilities and limitations, and not fully developed, are more prone to serious mishaps.

Most dirt races in North America, especially sprints, are experiences in deceleration. Next time you see a horse closing three lengths in the stretch, remember he is most likely just slowing down more slowly than the rest of the field. His "stretch move" is somewhat of an illusion. Consider the leader's normal fractions for a six furlong race at your local track. They probably look something like this:

22.7 46.3 1:11.7 ( 71.7 seconds )

(Throughout this article, we will use tenths of a second in our examples. Although most racetracks now time to the nearest hundredth of a second, and we use this data when available, tenths are sufficient for purposes of this discussion.)

Let's assume the winner (Horse A) went wire to wire and look at the individual quarter times. He went the first quarter in 22.7, the second quarter in 23.6 (46.3 - 22.7), and the final quarter in 25.4. Each subsequent quarter was run more slowly than the opening quarter, with the last quarter being almost three seconds slower than the opening quarter. Now, let's assume another animal (Horse B) is three lengths back after the first quarter, still three back at the half mile call, and rallies off the pace for a dead heat with our front runner. Using the crude approximation of one length equals a fifth of a second (the time value of one length varies at different rates of speed), the closer's quarterly splits would be 23.3, 23.6 and 24.8. So even though he gained three lengths in the final quarter, he still was traveling significantly slower than he was during the opening segment. He just decelerated at a slower rate than the leader. How about a big closer, you say. Well, let's say a third animal (Horse C) was twelve lengths back after a quarter, still eight back after a half, and rallied for a triple dead heat with the other two horses. His first quarter would be 25.1, his second quarter 22.8, and his final quarter 23.8. This animal gained eight lengths in the final quarter, but still ran that segment a full second slower than the middle quarter. This type of deceleration at some point in the race is the norm in almost all sprints run on the dirt.