By John Pricci, Executive Editor
The detailed analysis of the Travers field is listed in
post position order with morning line odds (Personal
betting-line projections in brackets, courtesy of the
proprietary Equiform Betting Template developed by Cary
Fotias):
1. Bellamy Road 2-1 [4.60-1]. Obviously the key to
Travers 136, not for his considerable ability but for the fact
he is a true speed horse that has drawn the rail. When he won
the Wood Memorial in record time by 17-½ lengths, he was being
mentioned in the same breath as Seattle Slew. He entered the
Derby, along with four other Nick Zito trainees, as the
favorite. As everyone knows, the hot Derby pace cooked any
horse racing near it and he unfortunately emerged with splint
problems and hasn't run since. Winning the Travers off a
112-day layup is a very tall order. Even if this was the race
Zito had in mind all along, and not the King's Bishop, six
published workouts and the long gallops promoting fitness,
even over the deeper Oklahoma Training Track, is a light
regimen for such a test. Zito even admits that if he wins, the
credit all goes to the horse. Everybody wants to win a
Travers, but the prize Zito covets most, especially given the
Afleet Alex situation, is the Breeders' Cup Classic. This just
might be the first step toward that goal.
2. Andromeda's Hero 12-1 [12.20-1]. Given the
circumstances and despite the salty competition, those odds
might be high. In coming out of the Jim Dandy where he
finished third, he comes out of the strongest Travers prep
this year. The race was his first start since the Belmont and
was designed to get him to this race the right way. In that
context, he is coming up to this better than his more
accomplished stablemate. Zito is adding modified blinkers,
known as cheaters, to help his colt's focus. He has trained
well. It's hard to envision, however, turning that 11-¾ length
defeat to two of today's rivals into victory. He might belong
in exotics under the stronger favorites here.
3. Chekhov 10-1 [20.60-1]. Even though trainer
Patrick Biancone is having a strong meeting, those early odds
are a little light. Biancone can be believed when he says his
colt, ambitiously campaigned earlier this summer, is improving
with maturity. His work-line seems to underscore that point
and he does appear a genuine 10-furlong type. Even with the
great Gary Stevens, however, at best he appears a bottom-rung
factor in the trifecta and/or superfecta.
4. Roman Ruler 5-2 [6.60-1]. With his well
documented foot problems behind him, he is one of the two "now
horses" in this race. Talented and classy enough to win the
Grade 2 Dwyer off works, he went to Monmouth and won yet
another Haskell for trainer Bob Baffert. Like many horses
throughout Spa history, he has blossomed further since
arriving in Saratoga. Even though Baffert has a reputation for
drilling his horses rapidly during training hours, this horse
is working brilliantly, reportedly getting physically stronger
by the day. He figures to get a dream trip given the projected
race shape and the presence of Jerry Bailey. Today's distance
is a question mark for every horse in here. It is the one
variable that could undo the talented colt.
5. Don't Get Mad 10-1 [12.20-1]. This sophomore is
an especially difficult read. If you accept the notion that he
didn't handle the Hollywood surface when taken out of his best
game, then you must respect the fact he is a talented deep
closer. He proved that in the Derby, with the help of that
killer pace, of course. But until he shows that he can win a
race anywhere other than Churchill Downs, where he's 4-for-4
and 0-5 everywhere else, a pass seems prudent.
6. Reverberate 8-1 [5.80-1]. The dark horse of this
Travers, trainer Sal Russo's comments ring true when he said
how he asked the colt to do too much too soon in the Belmont
Stakes: He was running back too close and the waters were too
deep. Freshened until the Jim Dandy, he was a very good second
to Flower Alley while appearing a tad short of top condition.
He has come back to work three times since and has been strong
in his gallops, according to Russo. By Travers winner Thunder
Gulch, the added distance might help him more than any horse
in here. Look for Jose Santos to break sharply and try to
angle over to save ground and secure the pocket trip. He is
most likely to fall through the wagering cracks. He is the
longshot play of Travers 136.
7. Flower Alley 3-1 [1.90-1]. Trainer Todd Pletcher
is spot on when he says that the colt's Jim Dandy effort
raised his game to a new level. His 3-year-old development has
brought him to today's race as the most probable winner of
Travers 136. After winning the Lane's End, he was a good
mid-move second in Alex's tour de force Arkansas Derby and,
while slightly campaigned, he was cooked in the Derby pace but
beaten a respectable 7-¼ lengths. Since freshened, he was a
good, need-the-race second in Roman Ruler's Dwyer then ran the
race of his young life to win the Jim Dandy by 5-¼, as if
today's added furlong was within his scope. Maturity,
experience and blinkers have all helped, as does the major
race over today's surface. A repeat of that effort easily
makes him the horse to beat. Anywhere near morning line odds
would represent excellent value.
Selections: 1. Flower Alley 2. Roman Ruler 3. Bellamy Road.
Longshot:
Reverberate.