Travers 136 Analysis
Date: Friday, August 26 @ 10:44:17 PDT
Topic: Columnists articles


By John Pricci, Executive Editor

The detailed analysis of the Travers field is listed in post position order with morning line odds (Personal betting-line projections in brackets, courtesy of the proprietary Equiform Betting Template developed by Cary Fotias):



1. Bellamy Road 2-1 [4.60-1]. Obviously the key to Travers 136, not for his considerable ability but for the fact he is a true speed horse that has drawn the rail. When he won the Wood Memorial in record time by 17-½ lengths, he was being mentioned in the same breath as Seattle Slew. He entered the Derby, along with four other Nick Zito trainees, as the favorite. As everyone knows, the hot Derby pace cooked any horse racing near it and he unfortunately emerged with splint problems and hasn't run since. Winning the Travers off a 112-day layup is a very tall order. Even if this was the race Zito had in mind all along, and not the King's Bishop, six published workouts and the long gallops promoting fitness, even over the deeper Oklahoma Training Track, is a light regimen for such a test. Zito even admits that if he wins, the credit all goes to the horse. Everybody wants to win a Travers, but the prize Zito covets most, especially given the Afleet Alex situation, is the Breeders' Cup Classic. This just might be the first step toward that goal.

2. Andromeda's Hero 12-1 [12.20-1]. Given the circumstances and despite the salty competition, those odds might be high. In coming out of the Jim Dandy where he finished third, he comes out of the strongest Travers prep this year. The race was his first start since the Belmont and was designed to get him to this race the right way. In that context, he is coming up to this better than his more accomplished stablemate. Zito is adding modified blinkers, known as cheaters, to help his colt's focus. He has trained well. It's hard to envision, however, turning that 11-¾ length defeat to two of today's rivals into victory. He might belong in exotics under the stronger favorites here.

3. Chekhov 10-1 [20.60-1]. Even though trainer Patrick Biancone is having a strong meeting, those early odds are a little light. Biancone can be believed when he says his colt, ambitiously campaigned earlier this summer, is improving with maturity. His work-line seems to underscore that point and he does appear a genuine 10-furlong type. Even with the great Gary Stevens, however, at best he appears a bottom-rung factor in the trifecta and/or superfecta.

4. Roman Ruler 5-2 [6.60-1]. With his well documented foot problems behind him, he is one of the two "now horses" in this race. Talented and classy enough to win the Grade 2 Dwyer off works, he went to Monmouth and won yet another Haskell for trainer Bob Baffert. Like many horses throughout Spa history, he has blossomed further since arriving in Saratoga. Even though Baffert has a reputation for drilling his horses rapidly during training hours, this horse is working brilliantly, reportedly getting physically stronger by the day. He figures to get a dream trip given the projected race shape and the presence of Jerry Bailey. Today's distance is a question mark for every horse in here. It is the one variable that could undo the talented colt.

5. Don't Get Mad 10-1 [12.20-1]. This sophomore is an especially difficult read. If you accept the notion that he didn't handle the Hollywood surface when taken out of his best game, then you must respect the fact he is a talented deep closer. He proved that in the Derby, with the help of that killer pace, of course. But until he shows that he can win a race anywhere other than Churchill Downs, where he's 4-for-4 and 0-5 everywhere else, a pass seems prudent.

6. Reverberate 8-1 [5.80-1]. The dark horse of this Travers, trainer Sal Russo's comments ring true when he said how he asked the colt to do too much too soon in the Belmont Stakes: He was running back too close and the waters were too deep. Freshened until the Jim Dandy, he was a very good second to Flower Alley while appearing a tad short of top condition. He has come back to work three times since and has been strong in his gallops, according to Russo. By Travers winner Thunder Gulch, the added distance might help him more than any horse in here. Look for Jose Santos to break sharply and try to angle over to save ground and secure the pocket trip. He is most likely to fall through the wagering cracks. He is the longshot play of Travers 136.

7. Flower Alley 3-1 [1.90-1]. Trainer Todd Pletcher is spot on when he says that the colt's Jim Dandy effort raised his game to a new level. His 3-year-old development has brought him to today's race as the most probable winner of Travers 136. After winning the Lane's End, he was a good mid-move second in Alex's tour de force Arkansas Derby and, while slightly campaigned, he was cooked in the Derby pace but beaten a respectable 7-¼ lengths. Since freshened, he was a good, need-the-race second in Roman Ruler's Dwyer then ran the race of his young life to win the Jim Dandy by 5-¼, as if today's added furlong was within his scope. Maturity, experience and blinkers have all helped, as does the major race over today's surface. A repeat of that effort easily makes him the horse to beat. Anywhere near morning line odds would represent excellent value.

Selections: 1. Flower Alley 2. Roman Ruler 3. Bellamy Road. Longshot: Reverberate.







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