Interview: RPM

RPM

Q - What is different about BLINKERS OFF than other recent handicapping books?

A - The main thrust of BLINKERS OFF is exploring the many relationships between pace and final numbers and how they impact current condition. Although several variables affect the outcome of a race, I believe current condition is the most important. Quite simply, well-conditioned horses, ready to make a forward move, will usually beat inherently faster horses that are not in shape to deliver a good effort. The trick is to be able to identify these situations when they are concealed from the public. The new concepts in BLINKERS OFF will enhance the handicapper's ability to isolate these opportunities.

Q - What are Equiform and THE XTRAS?

A - Equiform is the name of my company. THE XTRAS are produced by Equiform and feature our unique, velocity-based pace and final numbers. All of the data is presented in a user-friendly, graphical format that represents a horse's last three years of racing. The inter-relationship of the numbers (pace and final) has enabled us to develop a superior methodology for analyzing form cycles and predicting performance. (See Product Sample link at equiform.com for a legend and sample of THE XTRAS).

Q - Does someone need to buy your product to use the concepts in BLINKERS OFF?

A - The methods I discuss in the book can be integrated into any good set of pace-final figures. However, I believe Equiform makes the most accurate numbers, and recommend THE XTRAS for those who find the price suitable.

Q - Why and how did you develop THE XTRAS?

A - I was a Ragozin "sheet" player for many years and had much success with them. However, by the late 80's, as more and more people started using them, they began to lose their wagering value. To stay ahead of the game, I had to devise a new information set that would lead me to horses the "sheet" players couldn't properly evaluate. The "sheets" do not capture the dynamics of a race. Just as one inning cannot create a baseball game, one number is usually inadequate for evaluating the events of an entire race. Horse races are not conducted in a vacuum. Each entrant in a race contributes a unique set of characteristics, some quite powerful, that impact on all the other contestants. The interrelationship and reflexive nature of these traits constitute the specific race dynamic. Recognizing the importance of the internal fraction calculations and how they predict a horse's likely performance are Equiform's distinguishing features.

In addition to using the "sheets", I read a lot of the material on pace handicapping and experimented with different techniques. I wanted to synthesize some of the Brohamer-Sartin velocity and energy distribution ideas with the condition analysis of the "sheets".

I invested heavily in data and programming costs while refining my proprietary algorithms. I left my job as a currency trader on Wall Street and began poring over the output. It was a bit overwhelming at first, but, after a while, recognizable patterns in the numbers emerged. After looking at hundreds of thousands of races, we saw some things we expected to find and other things that surprised us. BLINKERS OFF elucidates a dozen or so patterns that consistently provide wagering value.

Services that focus on final time are no longer in the vanguard. Equiform is the next step as THE XTRAS enable the handicapper to separate contenders that appear evenly matched on final numbers. Research oriented and continually seeking innovative approaches, Equiform provides its users the ability to stay ahead of the crowd.

Q - Are your numbers computer generated or do they require human judgment?

A - Anyone who has spent a lot of time making numbers knows that human judgment is essential to produce superior numbers. The computer is a wonderful processor of information, but even with my sophisticated formulas, the output requires some fine-tuning. The raw number crunching gets me 90 per cent home, but it's the last 10 per cent that makes all the difference. Changing track conditions, timer malfunctions, rail placements on the turf, incorrect data, etc all require constant monitoring. In the end, experience and judgment are crucial. Without a doubt, I make better numbers now than I did ten years ago.

Q - It sounds like there is a lot of information on THE XTRAS. Besides the examples in BLINKERS OFF, do you offer any support on how to use THE XTRAS?

A - We offer unrivaled client support that is available Monday-Saturday on our toll free number (866-374-3676). Our knowledgeable staff is on call to assist clients in using THE XTRAS most effectively.

Q - What is your handicapping philosophy?

A - With all this talk of numbers, one might surmise I downplay other handicapping variables. Not true. This game is far too complex to be reduced simply to numbers. THE XTRAS are the cornerstone of my approach as I feel they provide the most accurate and useful performance data currently available. However, the insights I glean from THE XTRAS regarding condition must be incorporated into a comprehensive analysis that considers other handicapping variables. This exercise allows me to blend both the mathematical and intuitive sides of my personality. Once I have done that, I make my own line on every contender in the race. I cannot stress this last point strongly enough.

Unless you can put a price on a horse's head, you have little chance of winning at this game. Everything is a function of the odds. Just because a horse is on a great pattern line doesn't mean he should automatically be bet.

The price must still be right. THE XTRAS will help the handicapper more accurately predict a horse's true probability of winning.

In summary, I think one needs both superior information and an open, creative mind to really prosper at this game. But most importantly, one must believe he can win. There are many paths to the truth, but without a firm conviction in one's ability to win, the handicapper has little chance of financial survival.

Q - How can I find out more about THE XTRAS?

A - We encourage you to visit our website (equiform.com). You can also e/mail us at equiform@nyc.rr.com or call us toll free at 866-374-3676 with any questions. If you want to practice without purchasing the product, we are happy to e/mail previous days of THE XTRAS for your perusal.

Q - Do you offer any special trials of THE XTRAS?

For both newcomers and long-time clients, we will be providing free XTRAS for all of the Kentucky Derby future pools. Check the equiform.com homepage to download.