LVRJ - Derby '03

Las Vegas Review Journal

Friday, May 09, 2003

COLUMN: Richard Eng

New York analyst pegs Derby well

For my annual Kentucky Derby assessment, I sought Cary Fotias, president of Equiform. His New York-based company produces The Xtras form cycle analysis.

Last week, Fotias e-mailed me a Derby play that keyed Empire Maker first and second with Brancusi, Funny Cide, Peace Rules and Ten Most Wanted. With the finish of Funny Cide, Empire Maker and Peace Rules, Fotias gave the exacta that paid $97 and the trifecta for $664.80.

"The most logical horses ran 1-2-3," Fotias said. "Ten Most Wanted was liable to bounce, and Brancusi was strictly a live long shot."

"In my own Derby line, I had made Empire Maker 5-2 and Funny Cide 8-1. At the top of the stretch, I really thought that Empire Maker was going to go by him."

Did Empire Maker's bruised hoof cost him the Derby? "If he ran at 98 percent instead of 100, maybe that was enough to get him beat," Fotias said. "Empire Maker is probably a better horse who just wasn't on his best game."

With Empire Maker skipping the Preakness, the door could be open again for Funny Cide. "Funny Cide has run his two best career races back-to-back," Fotias said. "He's run compressed numbers. When you see horses do that, they tend not to bounce as much off peak efforts because they distribute their energy more evenly.

"I really liked the way Funny Cide spurted away at the end of the Derby, and, so far, he hasn't done anything wrong in his career." Fotias said horses coming out of the Derby are the ones to beat in the Preakness. But one colt he's focused on is Midas Eyes, calling him "one serious racehorse."

Right now, seven horses are Preakness probables: Funny Cide, Indian Express, Scrimshaw, Senor Swinger, Midway Road, Cherokee's Boy, and either Peace Rules or Midas Eyes from trainer Bobby Frankel.

The roster changes daily, so we'll see what tomorrow brings.