Cary Fotias looks like what a horseplayer should look like: he wears jeans, a comfortable shirt, and a Belmont

ballcap with a brim darkened by Racing Form stained fingers. I took the N train out to Astoria Queens to meet

up with him on April 27th, Opening Day at Churchill Downs, one week before the Kentucky Derby. I walked

into his office-a long storefront on 24th Avenue, filled with tables, chairs and TV sets tuned to racing as the

strains of Sinatra’s “Pennies From Heaven” filled the space. We talked about the big race, “I tell you one

thing,” Cary said, “this year you need to make sure to get at least 20-1. . .”

Cary’s the author of BLINKERS OFF: New Frontiers in Form Cycle Analysis, just published this year by his

company, Equiform. The book illustrates several innovative concepts and also serves as a guide to using

Cary’s new handicapping product, The Xtras. The Xtras have final time numbers on a graph, not unlike The

Sheets or Thorograph figures. But The Xtras also provide velocity-based pace figures, which give a clearer

picture of how a race was actually run, and yield clues as to what a horse is likely to do in his next start. They

aim to take the concept of condition handicapping and form cycle analysis to another level.

The book is also a ton of fun to read. Fotias’ obvious passion for the game and wry sense of humor make

BLINKERS OFF a rare pleasure in the world of gambling literature. Consider this paranthetical aside after Cary

“Intuitively logical is an oxymoron whose meaning will only really be understood by hardcore gamblers, a few

random poets and anyone who has ever been passionately in love.” In short, this is, if nothing else, a unique

and interesting book.

I’ve always written but I don’t really have a background as a writer. Twenty years ago I wrote a book about

the Detroit Tigers that I’ve had excerpted but I’ve always just written for myself.

The game as a whole has become overloaded with information. What I’ve tried to do is to identify what’s most

important and tried to simplify it.

Ragozin is smart. Instead of asking how a horse stacks up against the other horses in the race, he asked,

“How is this horse doing against itself?” That’s what form cycle analysis is all about. What we’re doing is

taking that a step further by using pace numbers in conjunction with final numbers to evaluate a horse’s basic

condition.

The most stressful part of the race for most dirt horses, especially younger animals, is the early portion. When

a horse runs better in that part of the race, further improvement is usually on the way. In turf racing it’s

usually the opposite. The end of the race is where the real running gets done, so we put more of a focus on

the latter segment of the race.

You’ve got to have three things to succeed. The first is a winning attitude. If you don’t feel you can beat the

game, you won’t be able to do it. Then, you need better information than the crowd. Lastly, you’ve got to

know how to use that information and how to bet with it. There are a lot of steps to being a winning

horseplayer.

You’ve got to be willing to work hard, show a lot of dedication and be a little nuts. Most people who are good

at this game are not what you’d call “normal” people. Great people but, shall we say, a little “off beat.”

The game’s all about getting value, not picking winners. You’ve got to be able to put the right price on a

horse’s head or you’re not going to get anywhere.

I could see that happening some day in the future but it will be a long time. Most people don’t want to work

this hard. By the time they catch up to me I’ll be on to something else. Or maybe I’ll go back to writing poetry

and playing poker for a living.

I love games. And this is the most intellectually challenging game I’ve ever played. I love the horses. What’s

better than a full field going a mile and a half on the grass at Saratoga?

You’d need a computer ten times as powerful as Big Blue to have a computer as the best horseplayer. I live

and die with my numbers but they’re just part of the game. At the highest levels, the game is really an art form.

I took a little bit from a lot of places. I’ve played blackjack, bridge and poker; I’ve been a currency trader. I’ve

also read a lot about handicapping, from mail order systems to Ainslie to Beyer to The Sheets all down the

line. I read and researched a lot and, over time, developed my own methodology.

If you don’t know how to lose, you don’t have a prayer of winning at this game. It’s nothing to lose 20 races

in a row, so long as when you win a few, you’re paying for all the others. You have to also have courage and

really be able to trust your own opinion. You can evaluate others’ opinions but the final decision must be

your own. It drives me crazy when someone says, “You talked me off the horse.” There’s no such thing! You

talked yourself off the horse based on my opinion.

I’ve lost the identification with most professional athletes; they have become more about entertainment than

sport. But the people in this game are still approachable. Remember the old Saratoga, where you could walk

right up next to the horses? I still love the history and the ambience of the place. They’ve kept it modern but

they haven’t lost the old world charm like the wooden grandstand. . .it oozes history.

One thing that bothers me about racing in most places in America is this perspective that horseplayers are all

degenerates. Sure, it’s OK to buy a penny stock online but god forbid you should bet on a horse race. In

Saratoga though, horseplayers are treated with respect and admiration. We’re the majority!